A stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Lévy jumps and three-time delays

Ge Zhang; Zhiming Li; Anwarud Din

doi:10.1016/j.amc.2022.127329

A stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Lévy jumps and three-time delays

Appl Math Comput. 2022 Oct 15:431:127329. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2022.127329. Epub 2022 Jun 28.

Authors

Ge Zhang^{1

2}, Zhiming Li¹, Anwarud Din³

Affiliations

¹ College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.
² School of Statistics and Information, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, China.
³ Department of Mathematics, Sun Yat-sen university, Guangzhou, China.

Abstract

Isolation and vaccination are the two most effective measures in protecting the public from the spread of illness. The SIQR model with vaccination is widely used to investigate the dynamics of an infectious disease at population level having the compartments: susceptible, infectious, quarantined and recovered. The paper mainly aims to extend the deterministic model to a stochastic SQIR case with Lévy jumps and three-time delays, which is more suitable for modeling complex and instable environment. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are obtained by using the Lyapunov method. The dynamic properties of stochastic solution are studied around the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the deterministic model. Our results reveal that stochastic perturbation affect the asymptotic properties of the model. Numerical simulation shows the effects of interested parameters of theoretical results, including quarantine, vaccination and jump parameters. Finally, we apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of mutant COVID-19 epidemic in Gansu Province, China.

Keywords: Asymptotic behavior; Equilibrium; Lévy jumps; Stochastic SIQR model.