Spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 in the Northern Italy during the first-wave scenario: The role of the highway network

Marco De Angelis; Claudio Durastanti; Matteo Giovannoni; Laura Moretti

doi:10.1016/j.trip.2022.100646

Spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 in the Northern Italy during the first-wave scenario: The role of the highway network

Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2022 Sep:15:100646. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100646. Epub 2022 Jun 27.

Authors

Marco De Angelis¹, Claudio Durastanti², Matteo Giovannoni¹, Laura Moretti¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil, Constructional and Environmental Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy.
² Department of Basic and Applied Sciences for Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Via Antonio Scarpa 16, 00161 Rome, Italy.

Abstract

Background: The rapid outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed several challenges to the scientific community. The goal of this paper is to investigate the spread of COVID-19 in Northern Italy during the so-called first wave scenario and to provide a qualitative comparison with the local highway net.

Methods: Fixed a grid of days from February 27, 2020, the cumulative numbers of infections in each considered province have been compared to sequences of thresholds. As a consequence, a time-evolving classification of the state of danger in terms of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, in view of the smallest threshold overtaken by this comparison, has been obtained for each considered province. The provinces with a significant amount of cases have then been collected into matrices containing only the ones featuring a significant amount of cases.

Results: The time evolution of the classification has then been qualitatively compared to the highway network, to identify similarities and thus linking the rapid spreading of COVID-19 and the highway connections.

Conclusions: The obtained results demonstrate how the proposed model properly fits with the spread of COVID-19 along with the Italian highway transport network and could be implemented to analyze qualitatively other disease transmissions in different contexts and time periods.

Keywords: A27, Italian highway from Venezia to Pian di Vedoia; A4, Italian highway from Torino to Trieste; A6, Italian highway from Torino to Savona; A7, Italian highway from Milano to Genova; BG, Province of Bergamo; BR, Province of Brescia; COVID-19; COVID-19, Coronavirus disease 2019; CR, Province of Cremona; Disease outbreak scenarios; E35, European route from Amsterdam to Rome; E45, European route from Alta to Gela; E55, European route from Helsingborg to Kalamáta; E70, European route from Coruña to Poti; GO, Province of Gorizia; Highway; LO, Province of Lodi; MI, Province of Milano; PC, Province of Piacenza; PD, Province of Padova; PR, Province of Parma; PV, Province of Pavia; RO, Province of Rovigo; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV-2, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; SS9, Via Emilia; Spatial epidemiology; TO, Province of Torino; TR, Province of Treviso.