Predictive models for prognosis of small sample advanced schistosomiasis patients have not been well studied. We aimed to construct prognostic predictive models of small sample advanced schistosomiasis patients using two machine learning algorithms, k nearest neighbour (kNN) and support vector machine (SVM) utilising routinely available data under the government medical assistance programme. The predictive models were derived from 229 patients from Xiantao and externally validated by 77 patients of Jiayu, two county-level cities in Hubei province, China. Candidate predictors were selected according to expert opinions and literature reports, including clinical features, sociodemographic characteristics, and medical examinations results. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the models' predictive performances. The AUC values were 0.879 for the kNN model and 0.890 for the SVM model in the training set, 0.852 for the kNN model, and 0.785 for the SVM model in the external validation set. The kNN and SVM models can be used to improve the health services provided by healthcare planners, clinicians, and policymakers.
Keywords: Advanced schistosomiasis; Predictive model; Support vector machine; k nearest neighbour.
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.