SARS-CoV-2 Risk Quantification Model and Validation Based on Large-Scale Dutch Test Events

Bas Kolen; Laurens Znidarsic; Andreas Voss; Simon Donders; Iris Kamphorst; Maarten van Rijn; Dimitri Bonthuis; Merit Clocquet; Maarten Schram; Rutger Scharloo; Tim Boersma; Tim Stobernack; Pieter van Gelder

doi:10.3390/ijerph19127238

SARS-CoV-2 Risk Quantification Model and Validation Based on Large-Scale Dutch Test Events

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jun 13;19(12):7238. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19127238.

Authors

Bas Kolen^{1

2}, Laurens Znidarsic¹, Andreas Voss^{3

4}, Simon Donders⁵, Iris Kamphorst⁵, Maarten van Rijn⁵, Dimitri Bonthuis⁶, Merit Clocquet⁶, Maarten Schram⁶, Rutger Scharloo⁶, Tim Boersma⁶, Tim Stobernack³, Pieter van Gelder¹

Affiliations

¹ Department Values, Technology and Innovation, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands.
² HKV Lijn in Water, 8232 JN Lelystad, The Netherlands.
³ Radboudumc, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
⁴ Canisius-Wilhelmina Hospital, 6532 SZ Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
⁵ Breda University of Applied Sciences, 4817 JS Breda, The Netherlands.
⁶ Fieldlab Program Committee, 1507 CC Zaandam, The Netherlands.

Abstract

In response to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, many governments decided in 2020 to impose lockdowns on societies. Although the package of measures that constitute such lockdowns differs between countries, it is a general rule that contact between people, especially in large groups of people, is avoided or prohibited. The main reasoning behind these measures is to prevent healthcare systems from becoming overloaded. As of 2021 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are available, but these do not guarantee 100% risk reduction and it will take a while for the world to reach a sufficient immune status. This raises the question of whether and under which conditions events like theater shows, conferences, professional sports events, concerts, and festivals can be organized. The current paper presents a COVID-19 risk quantification method for (large-scale) events. This method can be applied to events to define an alternative package of measures replacing generic social distancing.

Keywords: COVID-19; events; infection risk.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19 Vaccines
COVID-19* / epidemiology
Communicable Disease Control
Government
Humans
SARS-CoV-2*

Substances

COVID-19 Vaccines

Grants and funding

The project was funded under project number CI2021-IP004 by the Top Sectors Creative Industry and Life, Sciences & Health and CLICKNL and supported by the Ministries of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS), Education, Culture and Science (OCW), Economic Affairs and Climate (EZK), and Justice and Security (J&V).