The impact of infrastructure investment on social-economic system or ecological system has been widely discussed, yet, the overall impact of infrastructure investment on social-ecological system (SES) is still unknown. This study summarized the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on social ecosystem vulnerability. We first sorted out the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and then empirically analyzed the effect of provincial infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability by using spatial autocorrelation and spatial econometric models on the basis of accounting provincial per capita infrastructure capital stock and comprehensive evaluation of SES vulnerability. The results showed that the infrastructure capital stock per capita at provincial level increased significantly during 2004-2017, with a spatial pattern that the north was higher than the south and the east/west was higher than the middle in China. The provincial SES vulnerability was improved, with spatial distribution characteristics of gradually getting worse from east to west in China. There was positive spatial correlation between provincial infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability, with aggregation distribution characteristics. There was inverted U-shaped relationship between infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability in China, that was, the appropriate investment of infrastructure at early could decrease SES vulnerability, while over-investment would increase it. Our results revealed the overall impact mechanism and dynamic characteristics of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and could provide theoretical and policy-making support for the coordination of infrastructure construction and SES vulnerability governance at the macro level for China.
基础设施投入对社会经济或生态系统的影响已被广泛讨论,但对社会-生态系统(SES)的作用如何仍不得而知。本研究梳理了基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的影响机理,并在核算省域人均基础设施资本存量及综合评估SES脆弱性的基础上,采用空间自相关与空间计量模型实证分析了我国省域基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的作用。结果表明: 2004—2017年,我国省域人均基础设施投入水平显著提高,且呈北高南低、东西高中间低的空间分布格局;省域SES脆弱性也在不断改善,却表现出由东向西逐步恶化的分布特点;我国省域人均基础设施投入与SES脆弱性具有空间正相关性,存在聚集性分布特征;两者呈倒U型曲线关系,即早期适量基础设施投入会降低SES脆弱性,而过度投入则会导致SES脆弱性逐步增加。本研究揭示了基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的影响机理与动态特点,可为宏观层面统筹协调基础设施建设与SES脆弱性治理提供理论与决策支持。.
Keywords: infrastructure investment; social-ecological system; spatial autocorrelation; spatial econometric analysis; vulnerability.