This study investigated the effect of land use land cover (LULC) changes on carbon sequestration in the Hayat-ul-Mir subtropical scrub reserve forest, Pakistan. Supervised maximum likelihood classification of Landsat satellite imagery was done to assess spatio-temporal changes in LULC during 2007, 2013 and 2019. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate LULC of 2030. Spatial LULC data and carbon pools data was processed in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon model to investigate the effect of LULC on future carbon dynamics. The analysis revealed increase in cover of A. modesta and O. ferruginea and decrease in agriculture, built up and barren area of forest during 2007-2019 and 2030. The analysis also showed that the forest would additionally sequester 111 Mg C with an overall Net Present Value of $4112.05 in year 2030. The analysis revealed LULC changes on 25% area with increase and decrease in the value of ecosystem service (at some location) from carbon storage and loss as CO2 emissions respectively depending on the type of LULC converted. The study is helpful in identifying areas of potential carbon sequestration to maximize net benefits from management interventions.
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