Convolutional neural networks-based health risk modelling of some heavy metals in a soil-rice system

Abstract

The long-term consumption of heavy metal-rich rice can cause serious harm to human health. However, the existing health risk assessment (HRA) can only be performed after the rice has been harvested, and this approach belongs to a passive and lagging pattern. This study is the first to explore the feasibility of health risk (HR) prediction by proposing the indirect model CNNHR-IND and the direct model CNNHR-DIR based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) technology. The dataset included 390 pairs of soil-rice samples collected from You County, China, with 17 environmental covariates. The R² values for CNNHR-IND for non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were 0.578 and 0.554, respectively, and those for CNNHR-DIR were 0.647 and 0.574, respectively. The results demonstrated that both models performed well, especially CNNHR-DIR had a higher estimation accuracy. The spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that CNNHR-DIR exerted no systematic bias in the prediction results for health risks, confirming the rationality of the CNNHR-DIR model. The sensitivity analysis further confirmed the generalizability and robustness of CNNHR-DIR. This study proved the feasibility of HR prediction and the potential of CNN technology in HRA, and is significant regarding early risk warnings of rice planting and the sustainable development of public health.

Keywords: Environmental factor; Health risk; Heavy metal; Prediction; Sensitivity analysis; Spatial pattern.