An easy-to-use and affordable surveillance system is crucial for paratuberculosis control. The use of environmental samples and milk pools has been proven to be effective for the detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-infected herds, but not for monitoring dairy herds certified as MAP non-suspect. We aimed to evaluate methods for the repeated testing of large dairy herds with a very low prevalence of MAP shedders, using different sets of environmental samples or pooled milk samples, collected monthly over a period of one year in 36 herds with known MAP shedder prevalence. Environmental samples were analyzed by bacterial culture and fecal PCR, and pools of 25 and 50 individual milk samples were analyzed by ELISA for MAP-specific antibodies. We estimated the cumulative sensitivity and specificity for up to twelve sampling events by adapting a Bayesian latent class model and taking into account the between- and within-test correlation. Our study revealed that at least seven repeated samplings of feces from the barn environment are necessary to achieve a sensitivity of 95% in herds with a within-herd shedder prevalence of at least 2%. The detection of herds with a prevalence of less than 2% is more challenging and, in addition to numerous repetitions, requires a combination of different samples.
Keywords: ELISA; Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP); environmental samples; fecal culture; latent class model; milk pools; real-time PCR.