Vulnerability to typhoons: A comparison of consequence and driving factors between Typhoon Hato (2017) and Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Yue Li; Jidong Wu; Rumei Tang; Kejie Wu; Juan Nie; Peijun Shi; Ning Li; Lianyou Liu

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156476

Vulnerability to typhoons: A comparison of consequence and driving factors between Typhoon Hato (2017) and Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Sep 10;838(Pt 4):156476. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156476. Epub 2022 Jun 6.

Authors

Yue Li¹, Jidong Wu², Rumei Tang¹, Kejie Wu¹, Juan Nie³, Peijun Shi⁴, Ning Li⁵, Lianyou Liu⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China. Electronic address: wujidong@bnu.edu.cn.
³ National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100124, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China.

PMID: 35679942
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156476

Abstract

Typhoon disasters have caused casualties, property loss, and other negative impacts to social and economic development. Vulnerability is an important component of typhoon risk. However, little is known about the contributions of vulnerability factors and their interaction effects on typhoon-induced losses at a fine scale. Focusing on the vulnerability measures of Typhoon Hato in 2017 and Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, this study aims to quantify the contribution and interactive effects of physical and socioeconomic factors on vulnerability based on the GeoDetector method and determine the factors that account for most of the change in vulnerability. The results show that from Typhoon Hato in 2017 to Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, the vulnerability of the economy and houses decrease on average. Rain intensity and wind intensity are the dominant factors of disaster loss for Typhoon Hato and Typhoon Mangkhut, respectively. Vegetation cover and landform explain vulnerability better than average slope in most instances. For different loss types, the dominant socioeconomic vulnerability factor is different. For both typhoons, emergency transfer has a higher determining power (q) ranking for the population vulnerability, while the percentage of the GDP made up of primary industry have higher q ranking for economic vulnerability. The dominant interaction effects between two vulnerability factors differ depending on the typhoon and loss type but show a nonlinear enhancement effect in most cases. Moreover, changes in the maximum 4-hour accumulated rainfall account for most of the change in vulnerability between Hato and Mangkhut. Overall, the results can be conducive to understanding the complexity of vulnerability to typhoons and provide a reference for possible indicators for vulnerability assessment models, and determining the reasons for changes in vulnerability can be constructive to the formulation of specific policies for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Keywords: Direct loss; Emergency transfer; Hazard intensity; Typhoon; Vulnerability.

MeSH terms

Cyclonic Storms*
Disasters*
Housing / classification
Housing / standards
Rain
Social Vulnerability*
Socioeconomic Factors
Wind