Importance: Although clinical criteria for identifying youth at risk for psychosis have been validated, they are not sufficiently accurate for predicting outcomes to inform major treatment decisions. The identification of biomarkers may improve outcome prediction among individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P).
Objective: To examine whether mismatch negativity (MMN) event-related potential amplitude, which is deficient in schizophrenia, is reduced in young people with the CHR-P syndrome and associated with outcomes, accounting for effects of antipsychotic medication use.
Design, setting, and participants: MMN data were collected as part of the multisite case-control North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) from 8 university-based outpatient research programs. Baseline MMN data were collected from June 2009 through April 2013. Clinical outcomes were assessed throughout 24 months. Participants were individuals with the CHR-P syndrome and healthy controls with MMN data. Participants with the CHR-P syndrome who developed psychosis (ie, converters) were compared with those who did not develop psychosis (ie, nonconverters) who were followed up for 24 months. Analysis took place between December 2019 and December 2021.
Main outcomes and measures: Electroencephalography was recorded during a passive auditory oddball paradigm. MMN elicited by duration-, pitch-, and duration + pitch double-deviant tones was measured.
Results: The CHR-P group (n = 580; mean [SD] age, 19.24 [4.39] years) included 247 female individuals (42.6%) and the healthy control group (n = 241; mean age, 20.33 [4.74] years) included 114 female individuals (47.3%). In the CHR-P group, 450 (77.6%) were not taking antipsychotic medication at baseline. Baseline MMN amplitudes, irrespective of deviant type, were deficient in future CHR-P converters to psychosis (n = 77, unmedicated n = 54) compared with nonconverters (n = 238, unmedicated n = 190) in both the full sample (d = 0.27) and the unmedicated subsample (d = 0.33). In the full sample, baseline medication status interacted with group and deviant type indicating that double-deviant MMN, compared with single deviants, was reduced in unmedicated converters compared with nonconverters (d = 0.43). Further, within the unmedicated subsample, deficits in double-deviant MMN were most strongly associated with earlier conversion to psychosis (hazard ratio, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.03-1.90]; P = .03], which persisted over and above positive symptom severity.
Conclusions and relevance: This study found that MMN amplitude deficits were sensitive to future psychosis conversion among individuals at risk of CHR-P, particularly those not taking antipsychotic medication at baseline, although associations were modest. While MMN shows limited promise as a biomarker of psychosis onset on its own, it may contribute novel risk information to multivariate prediction algorithms and serve as a translational neurophysiological target for novel treatment development in a subgroup of at-risk individuals.