This study aimed at examining the risk of macrosomia, in relation to maternal pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity mediated via high maternal triglyceride (mTG) levels. In this prospective study, 24,730 singleton term non-diabetic pregnancies were finally included. Serum mTG levels were measured using fasting blood samples that were collected after 28 weeks of gestation. High mTG levels were defined as values ≥ the 90th percentile. The outcome of interest was macrosomia (≥4000 g). Log-binomial regression was used to assess the mediation path between overweight/obesity, high mTG levels, and macrosomia. The mediation analysis found a total effect of overweight on macrosomia of 0.006 (95% CI, 0.001-0.010), including a direct effect of 0.005 (95% CI, 0.001, 0.009) and indirect effect of 0.001 (95% CI, 0.000-0.001), with an estimated proportion of 11.1% mediated by high mTG levels. Additionally, we also found a total effect of obesity on macrosomia of 0.026 (95% CI, 0.018-0.036), including a direct effect of 0.025 (95% CI, 0.017-0.036) and indirect effect of 0.001 (95% CI, 0.000-0.001), with an estimated proportion of 3.8% mediated by high mTG levels. In conclusion, non-diabetic women with overweight or obesity had an increased risk of macrosomia, and this positive association was partly mediated by high mTG levels.
Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus; macrosomia; mediation analysis; obesity; overweight; triglyceride.