Background: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a potentially lethal parasitosis with a broad spectrum of disease dynamics in affected patients. To guide clinical management, we assessed initial prognostic factors for both progressive and controlled AE based on initial staging. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, examining 279 patients assigned to different clinical groups: cured, stable with and without the need for benzimidazole treatment, and progressive disease. Univariate analysis compared demographic and clinical variables. Significant variables were subsequently entered into two separate logistic regression models for progressive and controlled disease. Results: Based on the multivariate analysis, a large AE lesion (OR = 1.02 per millimetre in size; 95%CI 1.004-1.029), PNM staging (OR = 2.86; 95%CI 1.384-5.911) and especially the involvement of neighbouring organs (OR = 3.70; 95%CI 1.173-11.653) remained significant risk factors for progressive disease. A negative Em2+ IgG (OR = 0.25; 95%CI 0.072-0.835) and a small AE lesion (OR = 0.97; 95%CI 0.949-0.996) were significant protective factors. Conclusions: Patients with large lesions and advanced stages should be monitored closely and most likely require long-term treatment with benzimidazoles if curative resection is not feasible. Patients with small lesions and negative Em2+ IgG seem able to control the disease to a certain extent and a less strict treatment regimen might suffice.
Keywords: alveolar echinococcosis; progressive disease; protective factor; risk factor.