Although data-based healthcare innovation has been spotlighted in South Korea in recent years, previous studies have made little effort to systematically predict various possible future outcomes in the data-driven healthcare economy. This study investigated possible future such scenarios in South Korea by conducting a general morphological analysis (GMA). Seven key factors were identified that will drive the data-driven healthcare economy: the acceptability of data utilization, the level of data literacy, the status of healthcare data regulation, the healthcare data system, medical costs, the convergence of ICT and biotechnology, and the utilization of data in medical services. The main findings are as follows: Four possible scenarios for the data-driven healthcare economy in South Korea were identified. The first scenario suggested mostly optimistic prospects and close associations between factorial values on the various spectra. The second scenario was similar to the first one, except for medical costs. However, the third scenario contrasted with the first, as it entailed relatively pessimistic factorial values. Finally, most of the elements of the current healthcare status quo were maintained in the fourth scenario. This study makes not only an academic contribution, but also has policy implications based on the four scenarios.
Keywords: data; digital; general morphological analysis; healthcare; scenario technique.