A Copula-based interval linear programming model for water resources allocation under uncertainty

Wencong Yue; Shujie Yu; Meng Xu; Qiangqiang Rong; Chao Xu; Meirong Su

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115318

A Copula-based interval linear programming model for water resources allocation under uncertainty

J Environ Manage. 2022 Sep 1:317:115318. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115318. Epub 2022 May 25.

Authors

Wencong Yue¹, Shujie Yu², Meng Xu³, Qiangqiang Rong¹, Chao Xu², Meirong Su⁴

Affiliations

¹ Research Center for Eco-Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, 510006, Guangzhou, China.
² Research Center for Eco-Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China.
³ School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
⁴ Research Center for Eco-Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China. Electronic address: sumr@dgut.edu.cn.

PMID: 35623131
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115318

Abstract

Water scarcity tends to be aggravated by increase in water demand with the trend of socio-economic development. Thus, non-stationary characteristics of water demand should be identified in water resources allocation (WRA) to alleviate the potential influences from water shortages. In this study, a Copula-based interval linear programming model was established for regional WRA. Through combining correlation analysis and an interval linear programming model, this model can: 1) identify interactions between water demand and socio-economic development levels based on Copula functions, 2) explore variations in water shortage with consideration of multiple risk tolerance levels of decision-makers based on Copula sampling, and 3) obtain desired strategies for WRA through an interval linear programming model. Also, Dalian City in China was selected as a case study area to verify the effectiveness of the model for WRA to five water users (i.e., agricultural sector, industrial sector, public service sector, domestic residents, and ecological environment). Considering multiple tolerance levels of decision-makers to water shortage risk, three scenarios (i.e., S1 to S3), indicating 20%, 40%, and 60% of their low, medium, and high tolerance levels, were proposed. The results showed that the correlation between the amount of water demand and indicators of socio-economic development can be described by Clayton and Gaussian Copula functions. The total water supply of Dalian in 2030 would increase by 2.06%-2.65%, compared with the one in 2025. The allocation of water resources across districts was influenced by varied water demand, energy consumption, and risk tolerance levels. Compared with the amount of water allocation in 2025, the contribution of transferred water sources would increase by 6.71% and 7.04% under S1 and S2 in 2030, respectively, and decrease by 14.31% under S3. With the increase of risk tolerance levels of decision-makers, the amount of water supply in Dalian City would gradually decrease.

Keywords: Copula functions; Dalian city; Interval linear programming; Water resources allocation; Water shortage risk.

MeSH terms

China
Models, Theoretical
Programming, Linear
Resource Allocation
Uncertainty
Water Resources*
Water Supply
Water*

Substances

Water