Assessing the impacts of agricultural drought (SPI/SPEI) on maize and wheat yields across Hungary

Abstract

This study examined the physical properties of agricultural drought (i.e., intensity, duration, and severity) in Hungary from 1961 to 2010 based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study analyzed the interaction between drought and crop yield for maize and wheat using standardized yield residual series (SYRS), and the crop-drought resilient factor (CDRF). The results of both SPI and SPEI (-3, -6) showed that the western part of Hungary has significantly more prone to agricultural drought than the eastern part of the country. Drought frequency analysis reveals that the eastern, northern, and central parts of Hungary were the most affected regions. Drought analysis also showed that drought was particularly severe in Hungary during 1970-1973, 1990-1995, 2000-2003, and 2007. The yield of maize was more adversely affected than wheat especially in the western and southern regions of Hungary (1961-2010). In general, maize and wheat yields were severely non-resilient (CDRF < 0.8) in the central and western part of the country. The results suggest that drought events are a threat to the attainment of the second Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-2). Therefore, to ensure food security in Hungary and in other parts of the world, drought resistant crop varieties need to be developed to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production.