Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes

Tyll Krueger; Krzysztof Gogolewski; Marcin Bodych; Anna Gambin; Giulia Giordano; Sarah Cuschieri; Thomas Czypionka; Matjaz Perc; Elena Petelos; Magdalena Rosińska; Ewa Szczurek

doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes

Commun Med (Lond). 2022 Mar 3:2:23. doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Tyll Krueger^#¹, Krzysztof Gogolewski^#², Marcin Bodych^#¹, Anna Gambin², Giulia Giordano³, Sarah Cuschieri⁴, Thomas Czypionka^{5

6}, Matjaz Perc^{7

8

9

10}, Elena Petelos^{11

12}, Magdalena Rosińska¹³, Ewa Szczurek²

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Electronics, Department of Control Systems and Mechatronics, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland.
² Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
³ Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
⁴ Department of Anatomy, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Malta, Msida, Malta.
⁵ Institute for Advanced Studies, Josefstädterstraße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria.
⁶ London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, WC2A 2AE London, UK.
⁷ Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.
⁸ Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstädterstraße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria.
⁹ Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, 404332 Taiwan.
¹⁰ Alma Mater Europaea, Slovenska ulica 17, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia.
¹¹ Clinic of Social and Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece.
¹² Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI-Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands.
¹³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, National Institute of Public Health, Warsaw, Poland.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Public health.