Predicting wetland area and water depth in Barind plain of India

Abstract

The present study attempts to delineate wetlands in the lower Tangon river basin in the Barind flood plain region using spectral water body extraction indices. The main objectives of this present study are simulating and predicting wetland areas using the advanced artificial neural network-based cellular automata (ANN-CA) model and water depth using statistical (adaptive exponential smoothing) as well as advanced machine learning algorithms such as Bagging, Random Subspace, Random Forest, Support vector machine, etc. The result shows that RmNDWI and NDWI are the representative wetland delineating indices. NDWI map was used for water depth prediction. Regarding the prediction of wetland areas, a remarkable decline is likely to be identified in the upcoming two decades. The small wetland patches away from the master stream are expected to dry out during the predicted period, where the major wetland patches nearer to the master stream with greater water depth are rather sustainable, but their depth of water is predicted to be reduced in the next decades. All models show satisfactory performance for wetland depth mapping, but the random subspace model was identified as the best-suited water depth predicting method with an acceptable prediction accuracy (root mean square error <0.34 in all the years) and the machine learning models explored better result than adaptive exponential smoothing. This recent study will be very helpful for the policymakers for managing wetland landscape as well as the natural environment.

Keywords: ANN-CA; Adaptive exponential smoothing; Future prediction; Machine learning; Satellite images; Tangon river basin; Wetland mapping.