Incidence of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality in patients with peripheral artery disease: trends between 1997 and 2016

Abstract

Aims: Over the past decades, there have been improvements in the management of cardiovascular (CV) disease and risk factors. Long-term contemporary data on the population-level incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and CV mortality in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are sparse, which we aim to investigate in this study.

Methods and results: Danish nationwide registers were used to identify all patients aged ≥18 years, with first diagnosis of PAD between 1997 and 2016. Age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person-years were calculated to estimate trends of MI, HF, and CV mortality. The risk of MI, HF, and CV mortality was estimated by 1-year cumulative incidence with death as the competing risk. A total of 131 568 patients with PAD were identified [median age 70.67 (interquartile range, IQR, 61-78) years and 53.05% males]. The IRs showed increasing trends of MI until 2002, with an estimated annual percentage change (APC) of + 0.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.3-16.1, P-value 0.2]. After the year 2002, MI incidence persistently decreased until the study end with an estimated APC of -5.0 (95% CI 3.7-6.3, P < 0.0001), HF declined with an estimated APC of -3.3 (95% CI 2.0-4.6, P < 0.0001); and CV mortality declined, with an APC of -3.5 (95% CI 3.0-4.0, P < 0.0001).

Conclusion: The incidence of MI (since 2002) and HF in patients with PAD has significantly decreased over time, together with a decline in CV mortality. Our results suggest that preventive strategies have overall improved, most likely due to improvements in the application of guidelines in clinical care.

Keywords: Cardiovascular mortality; Heart failure; Myocardial infarction; Peripheral artery disease; Temporal trends.