Impact analysis of ECA policies on ship trajectories and emissions

Jinxian Weng; Tong Han; Kun Shi; Guorong Li

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113687

Impact analysis of ECA policies on ship trajectories and emissions

Mar Pollut Bull. 2022 Jun:179:113687. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113687. Epub 2022 Apr 30.

Authors

Jinxian Weng¹, Tong Han², Kun Shi², Guorong Li²

Affiliations

¹ College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China. Electronic address: wjx206@gmail.com.
² College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China.

PMID: 35504212
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113687

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the impact of emission control area (ECA) measures on ship trajectories and emissions of merchant ships. Results show that a part of merchant ships sail outside the ECA water area to avoid using more expensive low-sulfur fuel. The implementation of stricter ECA policies could reduce the SO_x emissions by 31.24%-42.67% for three merchant ship types. It is found that the proportion of ship voyages outside the ECA waters could increase by 4.77%-9.44% after the implementation of stricter ECA policies. Three logit regression models are established subsequently to estimate the occurrence probability of ECA evasion behavior. Results show that the evasion probabilities of merchant ships could increase with the ship size, the ship voyage distance as well as the price gaps of marine gasoline oil (MGO) with respect to high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).

Keywords: AIS data; Emission control area; Evasion behavior; Logit regression; Merchant ships.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Environmental Monitoring / methods
Particulate Matter / analysis
Policy
Ships*
Sulfur
Vehicle Emissions / analysis

Substances

Air Pollutants
Particulate Matter
Vehicle Emissions
Sulfur