Objective: This study aimed to investigate the changing seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea between 2000 and 2019.
Methods: We calculated a seasonal pattern of suicides between 2000 and 2019 using a non-stationary cosinor model. In addition, we estimated the effect of each month on the suicide incidence compared to a reference month, using a generalized linear model with a categorical variable of the month. Then, we visualized the rate ratio curves of suicides by gender, age group, and subperiod.
Results: We observed a seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea with a spring peak and a winter trough. The seasonal ups and downs were most pronounced in suicides among the elderly ≥65 years. However, the seasonal pattern has not been consistent over the past two decades, with lowering seasonal peaks since 2012. The amplitude of seasonality was also lower in 2010-2019 than in 2000-2009.
Conclusion: The seasonal pattern of suicides seems to have diminished in Korea in recent years. Thus, we need further studies to investigate climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the seasonality of suicides and the consequence of the change.
Keywords: Cosinor; Seasonality; Suicide; Time-series analysis; Trend.