Aim: To identify prognostic biomarker(s) for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort. Methods: Multilevel regression was used to determine the association between baseline biomarkers and change in biomarkers from baseline to 24 months with clinical and radiographic OA progression over 48 months of follow-up. Results: Higher values of baseline urinary CTXII were consistently associated with an increased risk of OA disease progression outcomes: Kellgren & Lawrence grade (odds ratio [OR]: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03-1.28); medial joint space narrowing (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10); lateral osteophytes (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10); joint space width (regression coefficient: -0.005, 95% CI: -0.008-0.001); and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index pain scores (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04). Changes in serum PIIANP and serum COMP over 24 months were associated with clinical disease progression. Conclusion: Urinary CTXII showed stronger associations with radiographic OA and appears to be a reliable prognostic marker, while changes in other biomarkers were found in early symptomatic OA, supporting the phasic nature of OA.
Keywords: biomarkers; knee; osteoarthritis; progression; regression.