Machine Learning Analyzed Weather Conditions as an Effective Means in the Predicting of Acute Coronary Syndrome Prevalence

Aleksandra Wlodarczyk; Patrycja Molek; Bogdan Bochenek; Agnieszka Wypych; Jadwiga Nessler; Jaroslaw Zalewski

doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.830823

Machine Learning Analyzed Weather Conditions as an Effective Means in the Predicting of Acute Coronary Syndrome Prevalence

Front Cardiovasc Med. 2022 Apr 8:9:830823. doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.830823. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Aleksandra Wlodarczyk¹, Patrycja Molek¹, Bogdan Bochenek², Agnieszka Wypych^{2

3}, Jadwiga Nessler¹, Jaroslaw Zalewski¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Coronary Artery Disease and Heart Failure, Jagiellonian University Medical College, John Paul II Hospital, Kraków, Poland.
² Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland.
³ Department of Climatology, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.

Abstract

Background: The prediction of the number of acute coronary syndromes (ACSs) based on the weather conditions in the individual climate zones is not effective. We sought to investigate whether an artificial intelligence system might be useful in this prediction.

Methods: Between 2008 and 2018, a total of 105,934 patients with ACS were hospitalized in Lesser Poland Province, one covered by two meteorological stations. The predicted daily number of ACS has been estimated with the Random Forest machine learning system based on air temperature (°C), air pressure (hPa), dew point temperature (Td) (°C), relative humidity (RH) (%), wind speed (m/s), and precipitation (mm) and their daily extremes and ranges derived from the day of ACS and from 6 days before ACS.

Results: Of 840 pairwise comparisons between individual weather parameters and the number of ACS, 128 (15.2%) were significant but weak with the correlation coefficients ranged from -0.16 to 0.16. None of weather parameters correlated with the number of ACS in all the seasons and stations. The number of ACS was higher in warm front days vs. days without any front [40 (29-50) vs. 38 (27-48), respectively, P < 0.05]. The correlation between the predicted and observed daily number of ACS derived from machine learning was 0.82 with 95% CI of 0.80-0.84 (P < 0.001). The greatest importance for machine learning (range 0-1.0) among the parameters reached Td daily range with 1.00, pressure daily range with 0.875, pressure maximum daily range with 0.864, and RH maximum daily range with 0.853, whereas among the clinical parameters reached hypertension daily range with 1.00 and diabetes mellitus daily range with 0.28. For individual seasons and meteorological stations, the correlations between the predicted and observed number of ACS have ranged for spring from 0.73 to 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.82), for summer from 0.72 to 0.76 (95% CI 0.66-0.81), for autumn from 0.72 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.87), and for winter from 0.76 to 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.83) (P < 0.001 for each).

Conclusion: The weather parameters have proven useful in predicting the prevalence of ACS in a temperate climate zone for all the seasons, if analyzed with an artificial intelligence system. Simultaneously, the analysis of individual weather parameters or frontal scenarios has provided only weak univariate relationships. These findings will require validation in other climatic zones.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome; artificial intelligence; machine learning; myocardial infarction; prediction; weather.