Learning to predict in-hospital mortality risk in the intensive care unit with attention-based temporal convolution network

Abstract

Background: Dynamic prediction of patient mortality risk in the ICU with time series data is limited due to high dimensionality, uncertainty in sampling intervals, and other issues. A new deep learning method, temporal convolution network (TCN), makes it possible to deal with complex clinical time series data in ICU. We aimed to develop and validate it to predict mortality risk using time series data from MIMIC III dataset.

Methods: A total of 21,139 records of ICU stays were analysed and 17 physiological variables from the MIMIC III dataset were used to predict mortality risk. Then we compared the model performance of the attention-based TCN with that of traditional artificial intelligence (AI) methods.

Results: The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUCROC) and area under precision-recall curve (AUC-PR) of attention-based TCN for predicting the mortality risk 48 h after ICU admission were 0.837 (0.824 -0.850) and 0.454, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of attention-based TCN were 67.1% and 82.6%, respectively, compared to the traditional AI method, which had a low sensitivity (< 50%).

Conclusions: The attention-based TCN model achieved better performance in the prediction of mortality risk with time series data than traditional AI methods and conventional score-based models. The attention-based TCN mortality risk model has the potential for helping decision-making for critical patients.

Trial registration: Data used for the prediction of mortality risk were extracted from the freely accessible MIMIC III dataset. The project was approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, MA) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Cambridge, MA). Requirement for individual patient consent was waived because the project did not impact clinical care and all protected health information was deidentified. The data were accessed via a data use agreement between PhysioNet, a National Institutes of Health-supported data repository (https://www.physionet.org/), and one of us (Yu-wen Chen, Certification Number: 28341490). All methods were carried out in accordance with the institutional guidelines and regulations.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Attention Mechanism; ICU; In-hospital mortality risk; Temporal Convolution Network; Time series.