Regressive Class Modelling for Predicting Trajectories of COVID-19 Fatalities Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models

Rafiqul I Chowdhury; M Tariqul Hasan; Gary Sneddon

doi:10.1007/s40840-022-01287-z

Regressive Class Modelling for Predicting Trajectories of COVID-19 Fatalities Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models

Bull Malays Math Sci Soc. 2022;45(Suppl 1):235-250. doi: 10.1007/s40840-022-01287-z. Epub 2022 Apr 13.

Authors

Rafiqul I Chowdhury¹, M Tariqul Hasan², Gary Sneddon³

Affiliations

¹ Charlottetown, PEI C1A 4P3 Canada School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of Prince Edward Island.
² Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3 Canada Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick.
³ Halifax, NS B3M 2J6 Canada Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mount Saint Vincent University.

Abstract

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 virus) pandemic has led to a substantial loss of human life worldwide by providing an unparalleled challenge to the public health system. The economic, psychological, and social disarray generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is devastating. Public health experts and epidemiologists worldwide are struggling to formulate policies on how to control this pandemic as there is no effective vaccine or treatment available which provide long-term immunity against different variants of COVID-19 and to eradicate this virus completely. As the new cases and fatalities are recorded daily or weekly, the responses are likely to be repeated or longitudinally correlated. Thus, studying the impact of available covariates and new cases on deaths from COVID-19 repeatedly would provide significant insights into this pandemic's dynamics. For a better understanding of the dynamics of spread, in this paper, we study the impact of various risk factors on the new cases and deaths over time. To do that, we propose a marginal-conditional based joint modelling approach to predict trajectories, which is crucial to the health policy planners for taking necessary measures. The conditional model is a natural choice to study the underlying property of dependence in consecutive new cases and deaths. Using this model, one can examine the relationship between outcomes and predictors, and it is possible to calculate risks of the sequence of events repeatedly. The advantage of repeated measures is that one can see how individual responses change over time. The predictive accuracy of the proposed model is also compared with various machine learning techniques. The machine learning algorithms used in this paper are extended to accommodate repeated responses. The performance of the proposed model is illustrated using COVID-19 data collected from the Texas Health and Human Services.

Keywords: Deep learning techniques; Joint modelling; Model accuracy; Repeated measures; SARS-CoV-2 virus.