Mean generation function model in AIDS epidemic estimation

Lei Yuan; Shiyin Tian; Zhe Zhao; Pei Liu; Lijuan Liu; Jinhai Sun

doi:10.1186/s12911-022-01825-6

Mean generation function model in AIDS epidemic estimation

BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2022 Apr 16;22(1):104. doi: 10.1186/s12911-022-01825-6.

Authors

Lei Yuan^#¹, Shiyin Tian^#^{1

2}, Zhe Zhao^#¹, Pei Liu^#³, Lijuan Liu^#⁴, Jinhai Sun^#¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Health Management, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Naval Medical University, No. 800 Xiangyin Road, Shanghai, 200433, People's Republic of China.
² Department of Hospital Administration, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, 200003, China.
³ Department of Mathematics and Physics, Faculty of Health Service, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, 200433, China.
⁴ Department of Health Management, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Naval Medical University, No. 800 Xiangyin Road, Shanghai, 200433, People's Republic of China. liulijuan79@sina.com.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: Since the first case of HIV infection was reported in China in 1985, the incidence and mortality of AIDS have been increasing rapidly, which has caused serious damage to the life and health of people in China and all over the world. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the technique for predicting AIDS morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this research is to explore the applicability of the mean generation function model (MGFM) in the early warning of AIDS morbidity and mortality, to predict its prevalence trend, to enrich the prediction techniques and methods of AIDS research and to provide suggestions for AIDS transmission control.

Methods: In this research, the MGFM was applied to predict the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China. AIDS incidence and mortality data in China from 2008 to 2019 were used to construct the prediction model.

Results: The MGFM can predict the annual incidence and mortality of AIDS. The model constructed in this research predicted that the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2023.

Conclusion: The mean birth function model was an effective method to monitor and predict the changing trend of AIDS incidence and mortality in China.

Keywords: AIDS; China; Forecast; Incidence; Mean generation function model; Mortality.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome* / epidemiology
China / epidemiology
Epidemics*
HIV Infections* / epidemiology
Humans
Incidence
Prevalence