A Nomogram With Six Variables Is Useful to Predict the Risk of Acquiring Carbapenem-Resistant Microorganism Infection in ICU Patients

Abstract

Background: Carbapenem-resistant microorganism (CRO) transmission in the medical setting confers a global threat to public health. However, there is no established risk prediction model for infection due to CRO in ICU patients. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of acquiring CRO infection in patients with the first ICU admission and to determine the length of ICU stay (ICU-LOS) and 28-day survival.

Methods: Patient data were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database based on predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. A CRO was defined as a bacterium isolated from any humoral microbial culture that showed insensitivity or resistance to carbapenems. The characteristics of CRO and non-CRO patients in the first ICU admission were compared. Propensity score matching was applied to balance the differences between the CRO and non-CRO cohorts. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to determine the 28-day survival rate and ICU-LOS. Furthermore, after randomization of the CRO cohort into the training and validation sets, a predictive nomogram was constructed based on LASSO regression and Logistic regression analysis, and its performance was verified by internal validation.

Results: Overall, 4531 patients who had first ICU admission as recorded in MIMIC-IV were enrolled, 183 (4.04%) of whom were diagnosed with CRO infection. Moreover, CRO infection was independently associated with 28-day survival and ICU-LOS in ICU patients. Parameters eligible for inclusion in this nomogram were male sex, hemoglobin-min, temperature-max, use of a peripherally inserted central catheter line, dialysis treatment, and use of carbapenems. This nomogram showed a better performance as indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.776 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.667-0.750) and 0.723 (95% CI 0.556-0.855) in the training and validation sets, respectively, in terms of predicting the risk of acquiring CRO infection.

Conclusions: CRO infection was independently associated with ICU-LOS and 28-day survival in patients with first ICU admission. The nomogram showed the best prediction of the risk of acquiring CRO infection in ICU patients. Based on the nomogram-based scoring, we can management the risk factors and guide individualized prevention and control of CRO.

Keywords: LASSO regression; MIMIC-IV database; carbapenem-resistant microorganisms; intensive care unit; nomogram.