Multi-criteria coastal environmental vulnerability assessment using analytic hierarchy process based uncertainty analysis integrated into GIS

Abstract

Changes in environmental conditions influence vulnerability due to interacting stresses and pressures across the nations and regions. Coastal resources are under severe stress due to climate change, growing trade and commerce, and the human population depends on them. The coastal vulnerability to changing climatic variables has created a major concern at regional, national and global scales. The present model study assessed the coastal vulnerability of the densely populated districts in South India, which are prone to extreme climatic events at a higher frequency. The seven crucial influencing variables that have been selected for the study were sea-level rise, coastal elevation, coastal slope, extreme rainy days, historical shoreline change, tidal range, and geomorphology. The identified variables were ranked by relative importance and linked by weightage using analytical hierarchy process-based uncertainty analysis. Mapped and reclassified variables have been integrated to derive the overall vulnerability using geospatial techniques. The study shows that the coast has experienced high vulnerability to SLR impact, extreme rainfall, geomorphology, and elevation; medium vulnerability to the shoreline change and least vulnerable to coastal slope and tidal range. Of the coastal regions studied, 29% and 14.3% had high vulnerability; 70.5% and 85.7% had medium vulnerability in the two selected densely populated districts (Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur District). Applying geospatial techniques to assess the environmental vulnerability resulted in reliable and informative maps which will serve as a model to determine the critical coastal regions to plan for the conservation and adaptation measures.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchical process; Climate change; Coastal vulnerability; Environmental management; Geospatial techniques; Uncertainty analysis.