Decarbonization of the Indian electricity sector: Technology choices and policy trade-offs

Ivan Rudnick; Pablo Duenas-Martinez; Audun Botterud; Dimitri J Papageorgiou; Bryan K Mignone; Srinivasan Rajagopalan; Michael R Harper; Karthik Ganesan

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104017

Decarbonization of the Indian electricity sector: Technology choices and policy trade-offs

iScience. 2022 Mar 2;25(4):104017. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104017. eCollection 2022 Apr 15.

Authors

Ivan Rudnick¹, Pablo Duenas-Martinez¹, Audun Botterud², Dimitri J Papageorgiou³, Bryan K Mignone³, Srinivasan Rajagopalan³, Michael R Harper³, Karthik Ganesan⁴

Affiliations

¹ MIT Energy Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
² Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
³ Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, USA.
⁴ Council on Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi, Delhi 110067, India.

Abstract

India is the third largest CO₂ emitter worldwide, and its electricity demand, which is primarily supplied by coal-fired generation, is expected to increase almost threefold over the next twenty years. Here, we simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector, considering uncertainty in future natural gas prices and costs for batteries and variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, under different CO₂ emissions limits and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets. We find a large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly, solar PV, in most scenarios. Furthermore, energy storage competes with natural gas and coal to provide flexibility to integrate VRE. Given a set of technology assumptions, policies that explicitly limit CO₂ emissions are more cost-effective at reducing emissions than RPS policies. The former are also more effective at reducing air pollution than RPS policies by explicitly penalizing CO₂ emissions, thereby reducing coal generation more substantially than RPS policies.

Keywords: Energy flexibility; Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy sustainability; Energy systems.