Background: Nephrotoxic medication exposure is a common cause of acute kidney injury (AKI) in hospitalized children and is associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The pharmacist-reliant NINJA program reduced nephrotoxic medication exposure and associated AKI. Objectives: We assess potential healthcare cost savings from reduced CKD by preventing AKI with the NINJA program for a pediatric population through age 21. Methods: We simulated a cohort of 1000 hospitalized non-critically ill children. From the published literature, 310 develop AKI, 267 survive to 6 months, and 10-70% develop CKD, and NINJA implementation reduced AKI by 23.8%. Allowing for varying CKD rates, we estimated a range of NINJA's savings. We assumed an annual GFR decline of 1.2 (noHTN) ml/min/1.73 m2 for half the sample and 1.7 (HTN) ml/min/1.73 m2 for the other half to account for CKD progression without and with hypertension (HTN). We model attributable costs including CKD stage-related medications and outpatient visits/tests in 2018 dollars discounted at 3%. We subtract the cost of NINJA screening (daily serum creatinine and pharmacist time) from net savings. We exclude end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and hospitalization costs. Results: No intervention estimated CKD related costs are $761,852 to $5,735,027. Post-NINJA cost decreases to $616,086 to $4,312,183 (net savings: $145,766 to $1,422 183). Total savings, accounting for NINJA screening ($256,680) are -$110,914 to $1,1 165 503. The breakeven AKI to CKD conversion rate is 13-14% with growth hormone cost included, and 64-65% without. Conclusion: The NINJA program is likely cost beneficial, with greater savings into adulthood by avoiding/delaying ESRD and its costs.
Keywords: acute kidney injury; chronic kidney disease; cost analysis; nephrotoxic medications.