Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Li Zeng; Xiaoping Liu; Wenhao Li; Jinpei Ou; Yiling Cai; Guangzhao Chen; Manchun Li; Guangdong Li; Honghui Zhang; Xiaocong Xu

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114943

Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways

J Environ Manage. 2022 Jun 15:312:114943. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114943. Epub 2022 Mar 22.

Authors

Li Zeng¹, Xiaoping Liu², Wenhao Li¹, Jinpei Ou¹, Yiling Cai¹, Guangzhao Chen¹, Manchun Li³, Guangdong Li⁴, Honghui Zhang⁵, Xiaocong Xu⁶

Affiliations

¹ Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
² Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China.
³ International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China.
⁵ College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hunan Normal University, China; Guangdong Guodi Planning Science Technology Co., Ltd, China.
⁶ Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. Electronic address: xuxiaocong@mail.sysu.edu.cn.

PMID: 35325736
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114943

Abstract

Land use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in the terrestrial carbon budget through habitat loss and vegetation change. Despite the projections of the global population and economic growth under the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), little is known of land use/cover change (LUCC) at a fine spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different SSPs. This study projected the future global LUCC with 1 km spatial resolution and a 10-year time step from 2010 to 2100 and then explored its direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSPs. Scenario SSP3 yields the highest global cropland expansion, among which approximately 48% and 46% is expected to be located in the current forest land and grassland, respectively. Scenario SSP1 has the largest forest expansion and is mainly converted from grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change in land use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach approximately 3.422 Pg C in 2100 under scenario SSP3 and increases by approximately 0.587 Pg C under scenario SSP1. Africa is expected to lose 30% of AGB under the scenario SSP3. Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 0.774 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss in 2100 under scenario SSP1. The global carbon loss estimated by the land use products with 10 km and 25 km resolution are less than that with 1 km by 1.5% (ranging from -11.2% in Africa to +34.0% in Oceania) and 2.9% (ranging from -11.8% in Africa to +24.0% in Oceania), respectively. These findings suggest that sufficient spatial details in the existing SSP scenario projections could reduce the uncertainties of AGB assessment, and reasonable land use development and management is a key measure to mitigate the negative impacts of LUCC on the biomass carbon pool.

Keywords: Aboveground biomass carbon; Global LUCC simulation; Resolution of 1 km; Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

MeSH terms

Biomass
Carbon*
Ecosystem*
Forests
Humans
Socioeconomic Factors

Substances

Carbon