This study aimed to examine the risk of macrosomia and large for gestational age (LGA) births in relation to maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status mediated through gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This prospective study included 34,104 singleton pregnancies at 8-14 weeks of gestation. The interesting outcomes were macrosomia (≥4000 g) and LGA (≥90th percentile). Mediation analyses were conducted using log-binomial regression adjusted for age, education, parity, fetal sex, and gestational weight gain. The proportion mediated was estimated based on the risk difference scale, and the E-value was utilized to assess potential confounders. Overall, 15.9% of women had GDM, and there were 4.0% macrosomia and 9.9% LGA births. The proportion mediated by GDM on macrosomia was up to 40% among obese women, and the estimate of the total effect was 6.18 (95% CI: 5.26-7.26), of the natural direct effect was 4.10 (95% CI: 3.35-4.99), and of the natural indirect effect was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.31-1.76). Likewise, among overweight women, the proportion mediated by GDM on macrosomia was up to 40%. Furthermore, consistent findings were evident for the outcome of LGA births. Pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity increased the risk of macrosomia and LGA births independently and partly mediated by GDM.
Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus; large for gestational age; macrosomia; mediation analyses; pre-pregnancy body mass index.