The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

PLoS One. 2022 Feb 25;17(2):e0264516. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264516. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education's academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16-31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18-29 years and 30-39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Belgium
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Pandemics
  • Prevalence
  • Students
  • Universities*
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

C. F. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (No. 101003688; https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.