A comparative study of stage characteristics and factorial decomposition of CO2 emissions between China and the USA

Abstract

CO₂ contributes a lot to the greenhouse effect. The total CO₂ emissions of the two countries, China and the USA, as the world's top two economies, have exceeded 40% of the total global carbon emissions. In this context, the exploration of the evolution of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China and the USA and the comparison of the characteristics of carbon emission drivers in different periods play a significant role in the policy formulation and climate change cooperation between China and the USA. In this study, the BP structural breakpoint test was used to divide the carbon emission stages of China and the USA from 1970 to 2019. The generalized Divisia index model (GDIM) was developed to decompose the growth of carbon emissions in China and the USA into eight items, GDP, carbon intensity of GDP, energy use, carbon intensity of energy, population, carbon emissions per capita, GDP per capita, and energy intensity, and to analyze the characteristics and cumulative contribution of carbon emission drivers at each stage. Based on the stage and cumulative characteristics of carbon emissions between China and the USA, the USA should take the initiative to assume the legal responsibility of carbon emissions and further deepen the cooperation with other countries in the field of climate change. China should transform the economic growth mode, optimize the energy structure, and improve the efficiency of resource utilization to help achieve the peaking carbon emissions and the carbon neutrality smoothly.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; Comparative study; Driving factors; GDIM; Stage characteristics; The BP structural breakpoint test.