Background: The duration of virus shedding is necessary for determining the infectious period. But there were few quantitative studies on the changes of viral load and the law of the viral shedding in hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) patients has not yet been clarified.
Methods: This study will prospectively recruit coxsackievirus A10 (CV-A10), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) infected inpatients from January 2022 to December 2022. A series of samples and questionnaire information will be collected regularly to establish the dynamic function relationship between time and viral load changes and a Bayesian multilevel model will be constructed to clarify the evolvement rules which reflect the dynamic changes of viral load and the duration of viral shedding in patients with HFMD.
Discussion: The results of this study is expected to further clarify the evolvement rules which reflect the dynamic changes of viral load and the duration of viral shedding in HFMD patients under the influence of related factors. It can also provide important evidence for the scientific definition of the infectious period and isolation period of HFMD in China.
Keywords: Bayesian multilevel model; Enterovirus; Hand foot and mouth disease; Viral load; Viral shedding.
© 2022. The Author(s).