Background: The aim was to systematically select blood markers routinely tested in clinical settings, which are independently associated with overall survival (OS) and are able to stratify prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients undergoing esophagectomy.
Methods: We selected optimal blood markers for prognostic stratification from 60 candidates in a clinical cohort of 1819 consecutive patients with resectable ESCC in China. Selection was carried out using two-step multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for multifaceted confounders. A composite index was developed by multiplying risk factors and dividing them by protective factors.
Results: With a median follow-up of 48.07 months, 641 deaths occurred in the 1819 patients and the 5-year OS was 56.30%. Two risk factors (mean corpuscular hemoglobin, fibrinogen) and a protective factor (albumin), all dichotomized and assigned values 1 and 2, were used to construct the composite index marker "MF-A". Three risk groups were created based on the MF-A score including low- (0.5), moderate- (1), and high-risk groups (2 and 4). Compared with patients in the low-risk group (1184/1778, 66.59%), those in the moderate- (488, 27.45%), and high-risk (106, 5.96%) groups were at elevated risk of death (adjusted HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.11-1.57; adjusted HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.56-2.75; Ptrend < 10-7). Within each TNM stage grouping, OS also trended to be significantly worse as the MF-A score increased.
Conclusions: "MF-A" is a novel independent predictor which may be used to estimate and stratify prognosis for ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy.
© 2022. Society of Surgical Oncology.