Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising pathway to providing cleaner personal mobility. China provides substantial supports to increase EV market share. This study provides an extensive analysis of the currently unclear environmental and health benefits of these incentives at the provincial level. EVs in China have modest cradle-to-gate CO2 benefits (on average 29%) compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), but have similar carbon emissions relative to hybrid electric vehicles. Well-to-wheel air pollutant emissions assessment shows that emissions associated with ICEVs are mainly from gasoline production, not the tailpipe, suggesting tighter emissions controls on refineries are needed to combat air pollution problems effectively. By integrating a vehicle fleet model into policy scenario analysis, we quantify the policy impacts associated with the passenger vehicles in the major Chinese provinces: broader EV penetration, especially combined with cleaner power generation, could deliver greater air quality and health benefits, but not necessarily significant climate change mitigation. The total value to society of the climate and mortality benefits in 2030 is found to be comparable to a prior estimate of the EV policy's economic costs.
Keywords: cost-benefit analysis; electric vehicles; environmental impacts; fleet modeling; life-cycle assessment; scenario analysis.