First-trimester prediction model for placental vascular disorders: An observational prospective study

Abstract

This study aims to develop a multivariable predictive model for the risk of placental vascular complications (PVC), by using biochemical, biophysical, anamnestic and clinical maternal features available at the first trimester. PVC include gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, placenta abruption, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), and stillbirth. Prospective study that included all singleton pregnancies attending the first-trimester aneuploidy screening (11 +0-12 +6 weeks) at Obstetrics Unit of the University Hospital of Modena, in Northern Italy, between June 2018 and December 2019. In a total of 503 women included in the analysis, 40 patients were in the PVC group. The final prediction model for PVC included the following independent variables: pre-pregnancy BMI ≥ 30 (OR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.04; 6.75, p = 0.0415), increasing values of mean arterial pressure (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02; 1.10, p = 0.0008), PAPP-A < 2.40465 U/L (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.19; 0.96, p = 0.0388) and decreasing values of PlGf (MoM) (OR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.10; 0.79, p = 0.0153). The area under the ROC curve was 79.4% indicating a satisfactory predictive accuracy. The best predictive cut-off for this score was equal to -2.562, which corresponds to a 7.2 % probability of having PVC. By using such a cut-off, the risk of PVC can be predicted in our sample with sensitivity equal to 82,4 % and specificity equal to 69,9 %. This model for early prediction of PVC is a promising tool to early identify women at greater risk for placenta vascular complications.