Retrospective exposure reconstruction using approximate Bayesian computation: A case study on perfluorooctanoic acid and preeclampsia

Yachen Zhu; Hyeong-Moo Shin; Luohua Jiang; Scott M Bartell

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.112892

Retrospective exposure reconstruction using approximate Bayesian computation: A case study on perfluorooctanoic acid and preeclampsia

Environ Res. 2022 Jun:209:112892. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112892. Epub 2022 Feb 8.

Authors

Yachen Zhu¹, Hyeong-Moo Shin², Luohua Jiang³, Scott M Bartell⁴

Affiliations

¹ Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA.
² Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Texas, Arlington, TX, 76019-0049, USA.
³ Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA.
⁴ Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA; Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-1250, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-1250, USA. Electronic address: sbartell@uci.edu.

PMID: 35149111
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112892

Abstract

Background: In environmental epidemiology, measurements of toxicants in biological samples are often used as individual exposure assignments. It is common to obtain only one or a few exposure biomarkers per person and use those measurements to represent each person's relevant toxicant exposure for a given health outcome, even though most exposure biomarkers can fluctuate over time. When the timing of the exposure reflected by the biomarker measurement is misaligned with disease development especially if it occurs after the disease outcome, results could be subject to reverse causality or exposure measurement error.

Objective: This study aimed to use an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method to improve PFOA exposure estimates and characterize the effects of PFOA on preeclampsia in the C8 Studies.

Methods: Serum PFOA concentrations were measured in blood samples collected during 2005-2006 in West Virginia and Ohio (the C8 Studies), and residential and water use histories and pregnancy outcomes were obtained from self-reports. Our previous results may have been influenced by the choice of methods for characterizing PFOA exposures. Here we use an ABC method to combine measured PFOA serum concentrations and environmentally modeled PFOA concentrations to reconstruct historical PFOA exposures. We also expanded our previous work by assuming more realistic lognormal distributions for key input parameters in the exposure and pharmacokinetic models.

Results: Compared to using fixed values of model parameters and Monte Carlo simulations, ABC produced similar Spearman correlations between estimated and measured serum PFOA concentrations, yet substantially reduced the mean squared error by over 50%. Based on ABC, compared to previous studies, we found a similar adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for the association between PFOA and preeclampsia.

Conclusions: Bayesian combination of modeled exposure and measured biomarker concentrations can reduce exposure measurement error compared to modeled exposure.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation; Historical exposure reconstruction; One-compartment pharmacokinetic model; Preeclampsia.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Bayes Theorem
Caprylates / toxicity
Environmental Exposure / analysis
Female
Fluorocarbons* / toxicity
Humans
Pre-Eclampsia* / chemically induced
Pre-Eclampsia* / epidemiology
Pregnancy
Retrospective Studies
Water Pollutants, Chemical*

Substances

Caprylates
Fluorocarbons
Water Pollutants, Chemical
perfluorooctanoic acid

Grants and funding

U01 TS000308/TS/ATSDR CDC HHS/United States