Harmful algae and climate change on the Canadian East Coast: Exploring occurrence predictions of Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica, and Pseudo-nitzschia seriata

Aude Boivin-Rioux; Michel Starr; Joël Chassé; Michael Scarratt; William Perrie; Zhenxia Long; Diane Lavoie

doi:10.1016/j.hal.2022.102183

Harmful algae and climate change on the Canadian East Coast: Exploring occurrence predictions of Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica, and Pseudo-nitzschia seriata

Harmful Algae. 2022 Feb:112:102183. doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2022.102183. Epub 2022 Jan 15.

Authors

Aude Boivin-Rioux¹, Michel Starr², Joël Chassé³, Michael Scarratt², William Perrie⁴, Zhenxia Long⁴, Diane Lavoie²

Affiliations

¹ Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, 850 Route de la mer, Mont-Joli, Québec, G5H 3Z4 Canada. Electronic address: Aude.boivin-rioux@dfo-mpo.gc.ca.
² Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, 850 Route de la mer, Mont-Joli, Québec, G5H 3Z4 Canada.
³ Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Moncton, New Brunswick, E1C 9B6 Canada.
⁴ Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, B2Y 4A2 Canada.

PMID: 35144821
DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2022.102183

Abstract

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a threat to human health, local economies, and coastal ecosystems. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were fitted using a 24-y database in order to predict future occurrences of three distinct species of HABs on the Canadian East Coast, the dinoflagellates Dinophysis acuminata and D. norvegica, and the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia seriata. GAMMs produced for each species were combined with two downscaled climate simulations (MPI-ESM-LR and CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 over the 21st century. D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata GAMMs were fitted using sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, with wind speed averaged over seven days added to the P. seriata model. GAMMs succeeded at various degrees at reproducing past HAB events, with D. acuminata and D. norvegica being accurately modelled, and P. seriata producing less precise model results. Both climate simulations lead to similar conclusions in regards to the spatio-temporal shift in occurrences of the three studied species. D. acuminata and D. norvegica blooms (≥ 1000 cells L ^- ¹) are predicted to increase in the future, whereas P. seriata bloom events (≥ 5000 cells L ^- ¹) will tend to stabilise/decrease overall on the Canadian East Coast. Dinophysis blooms are most likely to increase in the St. Lawrence Estuary. Pseudo-nitzschia blooms will move to the northeastern part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and will increase in the Bay of Fundy/Gulf of Maine regions. On average, earlier blooms and larger seasonal windows of opportunity are predicted across all species investigated. We conclude that changes in D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata bloom dynamics and their spatial distributions could threaten aquaculture industries and ecosystem health on Canada's East Coast in localities and during seasons which were not previously impacted by these species.

Keywords: Climate change; Dinophysis; GAMM; Harmful algal blooms; Prediction; Pseudo-nitzschia.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Canada
Climate Change
Diatoms*
Dinoflagellida*
Ecosystem