Purpose: The programmed death protein 1 (PD-1) pathway is the critical mechanism in development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study analyzed the prognostic impact of pretransplant serum soluble PD-1 (sPD-1) concentration and α-FP-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin-tumor volume (ADV) score in patients with previously untreated HCC undergone liver transplantation (LT).
Methods: This retrospective single-center study enrolled 100 patients with HCC who underwent living donor LT from 2010 to 2016. Concentrations of sPD-1 were measured in stored serum samples.
Results: Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of 2-year tumor recurrence resulted in an sPD-1 cutoff of 177.1 µg/mL, which was associated with higher rates of tumor recurrence (P = 0.022), but not with overall patient survival (P = 0.460). The derived cutoff for pretransplant ADV score was 5.4log, which was associated with higher tumor recurrence rate (P < 0.001) and lower overall patient survival rate (P < 0.001). Both sPD-1 of >177.1 µg/mL (hazard ratio [HR], 2.26; P = 0.020) and pretransplant ADV score of >5.4log (HR, 3.56; P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for posttransplant HCC recurrence. The combination of these 2 factors enabled the stratification of patients into 3 groups, with groups having 0, 1, and 2 risk factors differing significantly in the prognosis of tumor recurrence (P < 0.001) and overall patient survival (P = 0.006).
Conclusion: Both sPD-1 concentration and ADV score have prognostic impacts in patients who underwent LT for untreated HCCs. These factors, both individually and combined, can help in predicting posttransplant prognosis.
Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Immune checkpoint; Prognosis; Recurrence; Tumor biology.
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