Measuring and modelling crop yield losses due to invasive insect pests under climate change

Abstract

Climate change and agriculture are strongly correlated, and the fast pace of climate change will have impacts on agroecosystems and crop productivity. This review summarizes potential impacts of rising temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on insect pest-crop interactions and provides two-way approaches for integrating these impacts into crop models for sustainable pest management strategies designing. Rising temperatures and CO₂ levels affect insect physiology, accelerate their metabolism and increase their consumption, ultimately increasing population densities, which result in greater crop injury and damage, and yield loss. Whereas these direct effects are empirically demonstrated for temperature rises, they are less straightforward for CO₂ increases. Furthermore, indirect effects of rising temperatures and CO₂ levels remain largely unexploited and therefore unknown. Coupling insect pests and crops using a two-way feedback system model, whereby pest variables drive crop variables and vice versa, will improve analysis and forecasting of yield losses to better guide preparedness and intervention strategies.