This study aimed to investigate the seasonal variation of gonorrhea in China, and to analyze the relationship between the incidence of gonorrhea and meteorological factors. Data from gonorrhea cases were obtained from the Disease Prevention and Control Bureau and the Data-Center for China Public Health Science, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the incidence of gonorrhea in China from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2019 was analyzed. Meteorological data from the same period were obtained from the South China Meteorological Data Sharing Center, including the average monthly temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunshine hours, number of rainy days, and precipitation. The ratio-to-moving average method and seasonal subseries plots were used to analyze the seasonality of gonorrhea cases. The distributed lag non-linear model and attribution risks were used to investigate the effects of meteorological indexes on gonorrhea cases. The number of gonorrhea cases showed seasonal variation, with a peak in the third quarter and a decline in the first quarter. The Spearman assay showed that the reported number of patients with gonorrhea was positively correlated with the monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The risk of gonorrhea onset was highest at 6-11 °C, and the highest risk occurred when the average monthly temperature was 7 °C (resulting in an increase of 14.5% compared with 13 °C); a similar result was found regarding the cumulative risk of gonorrhea onset in relation to temperature. The attribution score of temperature to the onset of gonorrhea was 5.02% (95% confidence interval: - 3.84%, 13.88%). The study findings suggest that increased emphasis should be placed on screening for gonorrhea during summer and autumn, and that education on safe sexual behavior should be promoted during these times.
Keywords: Attribution risks; Distributed lag non-linear model; Gonorrhea; Meteorology; Seasonality.
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.