Renal transplantation is the gold-standard procedure for end-stage renal disease patients, improving quality of life and life expectancy. Despite continuous advancement in the management of post-transplant complications, progress is still needed to increase the graft lifespan. Early identification of patients at risk of rapid graft failure is critical to optimize their management and slow the progression of the disease. In 42 kidney grafts undergoing protocol biopsies at reperfusion, we estimated the renal metabolome from RNAseq data. The estimated metabolites' abundance was further used to predict the renal function within the first year of transplantation through a random forest machine learning algorithm. Using repeated K-fold cross-validation we first built and then tuned our model on a training dataset. The optimal model accurately predicted the one-year eGFR, with an out-of-bag root mean square root error (RMSE) that was 11.8 ± 7.2 mL/min/1.73 m2. The performance was similar in the test dataset, with a RMSE of 12.2 ± 3.2 mL/min/1.73 m2. This model outperformed classic statistical models. Reperfusion renal metabolome may be used to predict renal function one year after allograft kidney recipients.
Keywords: AKI (acute kidney injury); machine learning; metabolomics; renal transplantation.