As an important cause of global warming, CO2 emissions have become a research hotspot in recent years. Industrial transfer impacts regional CO2 emissions and is related to the low-carbon development of regional industries. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH region) as an example, this study analysed industrial transfer's direct and indirect impacts on CO2 emissions based on a mediating model and two-way fixed effect panel regression. The results obtained indicate that industrial transfer-in has promoted CO2 emissions to a small extent, and the positive impact of industrial transfer-in on CO2 emissions wanes over time. Industrial transfer affects CO2 emissions by acting on the economic level, on population size, and on urbanisation level, but the indirect effect is weaker than the direct effect. Industrial transfer does not lead to technological upgrading, but the latter is an effective means of carbon emission reduction. Industrial transfer-in has shown a positive effect on CO2 emissions for most cities, but there are exceptions, such as Cangzhou. In the future, the BTH region should maintain coordinated development among cities and improve the cooperative innovation mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction.
Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; CO2 emissions; direct and indirect impact; industrial transfer.