Risk Stratification of Patients with Stage I Cutaneous Melanoma Using 31-Gene Expression Profiling

Abstract

Background: While patients with localized cutaneous melanoma (CM) generally have good five-year melanoma-specific survival rates, identifying patients with localized disease at a high risk of recurrence could allow them access to additional follow-up or surveillance.

Objective: We sought to examine the prognostic value of the 31-gene expression profile (31-GEP) test for the risk of recurrence in stage I CM patients according to 31-GEP main class (low risk: Class 1 vs. high-risk: Class 2) and the lowest and highest risk 31-GEP subclasses (Class 1A vs. Class 2B).

Methods: Data from a previously described meta-analysis detailing the 31-GEP results for patients with stage I CM (N = 623) were re-analyzed to determine 31-GEP accuracy.

Results: Patients with stage I CM and a Class 1 31-GEP result were less likely to have a recurrence (15/556; 2.7% vs. 6/67; 9.0%; p=0.018) than patients with a Class 2 result and had a higher five-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) (96% vs. 85%). Patients with a Class 2 result were 2.8 times as likely to experience a recurrence (positive likelihood ratio: 2.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.38-5.77). In a subset of patients with stage I CM stratified further into 31-GEP subclasses (n = 206), patients with a Class 1A result had a higher five-year RFS than those with a Class 2B result (98% vs. 73%). Patients with a Class 2B result were also 6.5 times as likely to experience a recurrence (positive likelihood ratio: 6.45; 95% confidence interval: 2.44-17.00) than those with a Class 1A result, and the 31-GEP had a negative predictive value of 96.3% (95% confidence interval: 92.3%-98.4%).

Conclusion: The 31-GEP test significantly differentiates between low and high recurrence risk in patients with stage I CM.

Keywords: 31-gene expression profile; American Joint Committee on Cancer; cutaneous melanoma; stage I cutaneous melanoma.