Background: A high rate of neoplasia, both high grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has been reported in Barrett's esophagus at index endoscopy, but precise rates of post-endoscopy Barrett's neoplasia (PEBN) are unknown.
Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed examining electronic databases (inception to October 2021) for studies reporting PEBN. Consistent with the definitions of post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer proposed by the World Endoscopy Organization, we defined neoplasia (HGD/EAC) detected at index endoscopy and/or within 6 months of a negative index endoscopy as "prevalent" neoplasia, that detected after 6 months of a negative index endoscopy and prior to next surveillance interval (i. e. 3 years) as PEBN or "interval" neoplasia, and that detected after 36 months from a negative index endoscopy as "incident" neoplasia. The pooled incidence rates and proportions relative to total neoplasia were analyzed.
Results: 11 studies (n = 59 795; 61 % men; mean [SD] age 62.3 [3.3] years) met the inclusion criteria. The pooled incidence rates were: prevalent neoplasia 4.5 % (95 %CI 2.2 %-8.9 %) at baseline and an additional 0.3 % (0.1 %-0.7 %) within the first 6 months, PEBN 0.52 % (0.46 %-0.58 %), and incident neoplasia 1.4 % (0.9 %-2.1 %). At 3 years from the index endoscopy, PEBN accounted for 3 % of total Barrett's neoplasia, while prevalent neoplasia accounted for 97 %.
Conclusion: Neoplasia detected at or within 6 months of index endoscopy accounts for most cases of Barrett's neoplasia (> 90 %). PEBN accounts for ~3 % of cases and can be used for validation in future. This highlights the importance of a high quality index endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus and the need to establish quality benchmarks to measure endoscopists' performance.
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