The efficacy of deep learning based LSTM model in forecasting the outbreak of contagious diseases

Nurul Absar; Nazim Uddin; Mayeen Uddin Khandaker; Habib Ullah

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.005

The efficacy of deep learning based LSTM model in forecasting the outbreak of contagious diseases

Infect Dis Model. 2022 Mar;7(1):170-183. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.12.005. Epub 2021 Dec 28.

Authors

Nurul Absar¹, Nazim Uddin¹, Mayeen Uddin Khandaker^{2

3}, Habib Ullah³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Computer Science and Engineering, BGC Trust University, Bangladesh, Chittagong, 4381, Bangladesh.
² Centre for Applied Physics and Radiation Technologies, School of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, Bandar Sunway, 47500, Selangor, Malaysia.
³ Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Dhaka, 1229, Bangladesh.

Abstract

The coronavirus disease that outbreak in 2019 has caused various health issues. According to the WHO, the first positive case was detected in Bangladesh on 7^th March 2020, but while writing this paper in June 2021, the total confirmed, recovered, and death cases were 826922, 766266 and 13118, respectively. Due to the emergence of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, the country is facing a major public health crisis. Unfortunately, the country does not have a comprehensive health policy to address this issue. This makes it hard to predict how the pandemic will affect the population. Machine learning techniques can help us detect the disease's spread. To predict the trend, parameters, risks, and to take preventive measure in Bangladesh; this work utilized the Recurrent Neural Networks based Deep Learning methodologies like LongShort-Term Memory. Here, we aim to predict the epidemic's progression for a period of more than a year under various scenarios in Bangladesh. We extracted the data for daily confirmed, recovered, and death cases from March 2020 to August 2021. The obtained Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of confirmed, recovered, and death cases indicates that our result is more accurate than other contemporary techniques. This study indicates that the LSTM model could be used effectively in predicting contagious diseases. The obtained results could help in explaining the seriousness of the situation, also mayhelp the authorities to take precautionary steps to control the situation.

Keywords: COVID-19; LSTM; Prediction; RMSE; Recurrent neural networks (RNN).