COVID-19: Mathematical growth vs. precautionary measures in China, KSA, and the USA

M A El-Shorbagy; Adel M El-Refaey

doi:10.1016/j.imu.2021.100834

COVID-19: Mathematical growth vs. precautionary measures in China, KSA, and the USA

Inform Med Unlocked. 2022:28:100834. doi: 10.1016/j.imu.2021.100834. Epub 2021 Dec 28.

Authors

M A El-Shorbagy^{1

2}, Adel M El-Refaey³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj, 11942, Saudi Arabia.
² Department of Basic Engineering Science, Faculty of Engineering, Menoufia University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt.
³ Basic and Applied Science Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport, Smart Village Campus, Egypt.

Abstract

This paper aims to study the relation between precautionary measures that were taken by countries to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on its mathematical growth. In this paper, we study the development and growth of the epidemic during the first fifty days since its appearance in three countries: China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the United States of America (USA). An optimization process is used to determine the parameters of the closest model that simulates the data during the specified period by using one of the evolutionary computation techniques, the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA). The study reveals that the strict precautionary measures of applying isolation and quarantine, preventing all gatherings, and a total curfew are the only way to prevent the spread of the epidemic exponentially as China did. Also, without any measures to slow its growth, COVID-19 will continue to spread steadily for months.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic growth mathematically; Novel coronavirus; Optimization process; Precautionary measures.

Publication types

Review