Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Dec 21;17(12):e1009690. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009690. eCollection 2021 Dec.

Abstract

Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bangladesh
  • Humans
  • Mass Vaccination / statistics & numerical data*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Poliomyelitis* / epidemiology
  • Poliomyelitis* / prevention & control
  • Poliomyelitis* / virology
  • Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral*
  • Poliovirus*
  • Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic

Substances

  • Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT02477046

Grants and funding

MT, KZ received funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1125451) https://www.gatesfoundation.org/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.