The use of a predictive threat analysis to propose revisions to existing risk assessments for precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME)

Gareth Collett; Melissa Ladyman; Rachael Hazael; Tracey Temple

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08343

The use of a predictive threat analysis to propose revisions to existing risk assessments for precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME)

Heliyon. 2021 Nov 11;7(12):e08343. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08343. eCollection 2021 Dec.

Authors

Gareth Collett¹, Melissa Ladyman¹, Rachael Hazael², Tracey Temple²

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Defence Chemistry, Cranfield University, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, Shrivenham, SN6 8LA, UK.
² Cranfield Forensic Institute, Cranfield University, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, Shrivenham, SN6 8LA, UK.

Abstract

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have generated over 137,000 civilian casualties in the past decade, more than any other explosive weapon system in the same period with a far-reaching impact on personal security freedoms across 50 affected countries. The aim of this paper is to consolidate existing risk management processes to control the availability of chemical precursors used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME) and to recommend global standards for market regulations in their composition, sale and use. This will be achieved by assessing the current regional regulations for three common chemical precursors (hydrogen peroxide, ammonium nitrate and potassium chlorate), and proposing a risk management process to identify key precursor chemicals that require greater control.

Keywords: Ammonium nitrate (AN); Explosives manufacturing; Home-made explosives (HME); Hydrogen peroxide (HP); Improvised explosive device (IED); Potassium chlorate (PC).